Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.709182 21.428928 23.327830 25.599708 28.270735 31.346233 35.208175
2024-12-22 17.024250 19.250543 21.886001 25.303579 29.726886 35.429273 43.658216
2024-12-29 15.204029 17.690399 20.790948 25.075911 31.090549 39.689179 53.983425
2025-01-05 13.887465 16.519562 19.939579 24.921145 32.426829 44.251918 67.043518
2025-01-12 12.738548 15.400422 18.966758 24.376609 33.008183 47.797178 80.649121
2025-01-19 12.270263 15.113461 19.061601 25.351631 36.142510 56.863553 114.202238
2025-01-26 11.555686 14.405244 18.455831 25.125684 37.167400 62.370783 146.935369
2025-02-02 11.024607 13.900717 18.081803 25.193632 38.719309 69.807423 203.103241
2025-02-09 10.597907 13.505196 17.821734 25.397007 40.573206 79.131230 307.269910
2025-02-16 10.191943 13.104946 17.508616 25.450420 42.126691 88.817246 503.696403
2025-02-23 9.762160 12.637120 17.042897 25.156973 42.841954 96.590892 863.606690
2025-03-02 9.437039 12.305173 16.765929 25.173490 44.289091 108.445780 2475.498404
2025-03-09 9.086550 11.918178 16.375706 24.940127 45.127823 119.311157 62094.517989
2025-03-16 8.761883 11.553240 15.995548 24.681960 45.861509 131.072824 NaN
2025-03-23 8.473298 11.229152 15.661026 24.476013 46.703775 145.173266 NaN
2025-03-30 8.218278 10.944608 15.373947 24.333537 47.707762 162.692814 NaN
2025-04-06 7.924285 10.583739 14.930734 23.813230 47.474558 172.104664 NaN
2025-04-13 7.868516 10.602163 15.154027 24.751663 52.080364 235.864372 NaN
2025-04-20 7.651818 10.347588 14.870975 24.535388 52.864819 268.011699 NaN
2025-04-27 7.487741 10.171876 14.719580 24.601048 54.686179 327.398964 NaN
2025-05-04 7.350709 10.034383 14.628856 24.796604 57.095452 425.430463 NaN
2025-05-11 7.203658 9.873539 14.484371 24.848003 59.009563 552.864287 NaN
2025-05-18 7.024846 9.652265 14.214014 24.566161 59.495925 660.445539 NaN